The call is 70% long EM and 30% long rut.
I will trade at 90%.
The EM call has the bias.
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About Me
- Forecaster
- I originally developed this stock market timing system to trade leveraged mutual funds within a retirement account. It appeared that traditional "buy and hold" strategies would not generate the returns I desired in the time frame I needed. I wanted a mechanical trading system that took the emotion out of making decisions about the future moves of the markets. This system gives a "end of day" call for the next days market direction. On some days it requires some input from the trader as the signal may be dependent on the closing price of a particular index. It can be traded using etf's or mutual funds. This blog is for entertainment purposes and to track the development of this system. It is not intended to be used as advice. Use at your own risk!
The system is looking pretty good so far this year. Last year looked good also, esp the Em mkt scenario. Was wondering if the returns shown every weeek are compounded or additive. ALso are they based on using the 2x Direxion funds. I know you may have said all this before but I cannot find anywhere, thx.
ReplyDeleteFOrgot to ask one more question: the column with the Em MKt heading - does that assume just using the Em Mkt funds at 100%, as opposed to splitting between 2 funds? thx
ReplyDeleteHi, The Em column is just that subsystem that tracks EM markets. It can have great runs but also great drawdowns. I am reporting returns as 2x EM and 3x Domestic. These are compounded and just a multiply of the underlying indexes move. Using etf's or mutual funds would approximate this but not be identical. To get the returns of the domestic you would have to trade a 3x etf for that portion of the call. In my mutual fund accounts I allocate a larger percentage to the domestic portion to approximate the 3x since they are only 2x. This could be traded at 1x if you are more conservative.
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