the call is 60% short EM and 40% long spx.
I will trade at 1.75x.
The EM call will switch if the eem closes above 39.65.
The spx call has the bias.
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About Me
- Forecaster
- I originally developed this stock market timing system to trade leveraged mutual funds within a retirement account. It appeared that traditional "buy and hold" strategies would not generate the returns I desired in the time frame I needed. I wanted a mechanical trading system that took the emotion out of making decisions about the future moves of the markets. This system gives a "end of day" call for the next days market direction. On some days it requires some input from the trader as the signal may be dependent on the closing price of a particular index. It can be traded using etf's or mutual funds. This blog is for entertainment purposes and to track the development of this system. It is not intended to be used as advice. Use at your own risk!
Forecaster
ReplyDeleteCan you explain to me what is going on with your system this year? You had an awesome 2009, when alot of other systems underperformed the benchmark. Also building on the first question, can you then explain why it worked so well in 2009?
Hey Brandon, Good question, basically this system, as it stands, has periods of great returns and vice versa....In 08 as I posted on Poor to rich yahoo group it ran up to a few hundred percent gain only to give it back by year end. In part this was a factor of very volatile markets. If you look back last year most of the gains were early in the year when I started the blog. So the challenge is to either smooth returns or try and ride the ups and not the downs of the system.
ReplyDeleteI expect the system to do better in the future, but that is not guaranteed. Last year February was bad...maybe I should stay out for this month? I revamped the system quite a bit last Feb-March. My new plan to diversify between two calls may or may not work out. If both systems are robust it should be fine. Time well tell.
Without giving away your secrets or your special system, can you give me an idea on the indicators/oscillators that your systems uses? Im also curious to see, does your system give a specific end of day call or do you have to decide what the call is from the information given by your indicators/oscillators?
ReplyDeleteThanks Brandon
Hi, The system is unique to the best of my knowledge. It is mechanical in that it gives me the call based on the closing price (3:50). At this point the only decision I make is how much to allocate i.e. 1.5x.
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