the call is to be long tomorrow unless the spx closes above 928.09.
Will trade spx at 1.5x.
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- Forecaster
- I originally developed this stock market timing system to trade leveraged mutual funds within a retirement account. It appeared that traditional "buy and hold" strategies would not generate the returns I desired in the time frame I needed. I wanted a mechanical trading system that took the emotion out of making decisions about the future moves of the markets. This system gives a "end of day" call for the next days market direction. On some days it requires some input from the trader as the signal may be dependent on the closing price of a particular index. It can be traded using etf's or mutual funds. This blog is for entertainment purposes and to track the development of this system. It is not intended to be used as advice. Use at your own risk!
I am leaning toward the short side for Tuesday,..in part due to the elevated ISEE number at 140,..too much optimism here on Monday. Also,..with Oil up over $2, the SP500 should be doing more on the upside, and it is not. I am biased toward the short side for Tue,..but am still undecided. Watching your 928.09 level. Later, Jim
ReplyDeleteSorry. We're going down Tuesday. 100% sure about it. No ifs or buts. They'll gap her down tomorrow open and down we go. Better put your shorts on or you'll catch a Bull prod in the heiny.
ReplyDeletett
Looks like 930 area will provide a lot of resistance, but it is end of month so may get a little more upside, we shall see.
ReplyDeleteClosed at 927.23, ...very close to your 928.09 level. I went short at the close,..1X, for Tuesday. Regards, Jim
ReplyDeleteMost EW'rs see 930 as a top then down. Most are still calling for a new high later this summer. I like to follow the EW guru's as it gives me a larger framework of possible trends and the scale of these trends. I expect tomorrow will not be a large move either way. Good luck all.
ReplyDeleteI think you are right. down in am and a mild rally later to forma doji. Big down day is on wed. and onwards for a week to 890, 865 or even 825
ReplyDeleteshortlong
Some interesting seaonal biases for tomorrow, Tue, 06-30, Last Day of Quarter 2:
ReplyDeleteFor the last 12 Years, the final trading day of Q2 has been an Up day for the S&P four times, and a Down day eight times.
Trader's Almanac notes: Last Day of Q2 is Bearish for the Dow, Down 13 of last 17. BUT,..last day of Q2 is Bullish for the Nasdaq, Up 12 of the last 16,..although DOWN 4 of the last 5 years.
For the S&P 500,...Trader's Almanac indicates only a 33% chance of an up day on Tuesday,..
(their lowest probability given).
It's going down and it has nothing to do with E-wave. I like EW but it's only one tool. Much better tools out there. Yes. The question is how much? This is a ST trade and then it's back up same day or Wednesday morning. Lot's of volatility when cycle cross-currents converge. But even if you short now and hold and market goes up tomorrow, you will be a winner by next week for sure. Nevertheless market's still going down tomorrow especially with everybody -and i mean EVERYbody...talking about end-of-QTR window dressing.
ReplyDeletett
Dat's wat I'm tawkin about dog.
ReplyDeletett
Good call, so far Jim and tt, see if it holds till close.
ReplyDeleteIt is unbelievable that the market moves against your forecast FIVE days in a row. Sooner or later, you will be correct. How many more times left? Maybe like a broken clock (12).
ReplyDeleteThe broken clock comment is way off base and incorrect. Let's see how well you make day to day calls big shot!!!
ReplyDeleteMaybe this board should be moderated to avoid cowardly comments like that.
Cal
Tomorrow, Wed 07-01 is my next 3 week cycle (likely pivot) date.
ReplyDeleteI am biased to view today's (Tue 06-30) selloff as a LOW,..with a likely turn to the upside tomorrow, with a higher close.
Sentiment today (Tue) is VERY constructive, with $CPC at 1.10, reflecting a LOT of fear.
It's only 2:15pm, but my bias is to go long the close on Tues.
Have a good afternoon.
Regards, Jim P.
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ReplyDeleteModeration can be arranged!
ReplyDelete