The call is to stay long as today is such a strong pullback.
Will go to 1.25x.
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About Me
- Forecaster
- I originally developed this stock market timing system to trade leveraged mutual funds within a retirement account. It appeared that traditional "buy and hold" strategies would not generate the returns I desired in the time frame I needed. I wanted a mechanical trading system that took the emotion out of making decisions about the future moves of the markets. This system gives a "end of day" call for the next days market direction. On some days it requires some input from the trader as the signal may be dependent on the closing price of a particular index. It can be traded using etf's or mutual funds. This blog is for entertainment purposes and to track the development of this system. It is not intended to be used as advice. Use at your own risk!
My next 3 week cycle (likely pivot) date is Tue 05-26. We are closed on Mon 05-25 for Holiday. I am biased that we will move up here today (Fri) into a High on Tue 05-26.
ReplyDeleteJim,
ReplyDeleteHow do you see next week playing out? Do you see 05-26 as the high of the week or are you seeing a turn (down) later in beginning of june?
thanks
waterfall
Hello Waterfall,
ReplyDeleteNo real feel for next week overall. Sorry. I have a likely pivot date (3 week cycle date) on Tue 05-26, and my bias is that Tue should mark a turn lower from a High. (So going short the close here on Fri is not a bad idea). My next 3 wk cycle date is on Fri 05-28,..and could be a High or a Low,..will have to wait and
see how we move into that time frame,..and then I would expect a reversal of sorts.
In general, I look at daily sentiment (CBOE P/C ratio and ISEE number), as well as indicators (NYSE CUmulative TICK Intraday, and AROON 14 Osc...
here is real time updating link:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p44037532917&a=115818118&r=3214
and other tools to make a determination of next day likely direction. So my focus is usually on very next day.
I also participate in a "managed acct" program, run by a good friend of mine (Stan), which is doing better than I could ever hope to do. Here is Stan's site:
http://www.4csns.com/
Hope this explanation helps, ..have a good Memorial Day weekend Waterfall.
Regards, Jim P.
Waterfall,
ReplyDeleteWith regard to your question,..of what to expect in early June,...
my bias would be for a LOW.
Looking ahead, ...Tue 05-26 is 55 market days from the early March low,..another reason to expect a turn there.....and Mon June 8 is a date that suggests a LOW based on a weekly cycle count,...
So, just guessing, but if I had to have an expectation,..it would be for a turn down Tues 05-26 into an early June LOW.
Regards, Jim P.
Jim,
ReplyDeleteSorry for the delay in responding.
THANK YOU very much for the comments and for the link you provided. Appreciate you taking the time to do this. Very helpful of you.
Have a good weekend.
Waterfall